Ir al menú de navegación principal Ir al contenido principal Ir al pie de página del sitio
Migraciones Internacionales e-ISSN: 2594-0279

Artículos

Vol. 11 (2020): enero-diciembre, 2020

Lethal Violence and Migration in Mexico: An Analysis of Internal and International Moves

DOI
https://doi.org/10.33679/rmi.v1i1.2282
Publicado
2020-07-01

Resumen

Conectando tasas de homicidio municipales desde 1990 a 2018 con datos del Proyecto Mexicano de Migración, estimamos una serie de modelos multinomiales de tiempo discreto para evaluar el efecto de la violencia homicida sobre la probabilidad de migrar dentro de México o hacia Estados Unidos sin documentos. Las estimaciones indican que la tasa de homicidio predice negativamente la probabilidad de realizar un primer viaje a Estados Unidos, pero predice positivamente la probabilidad de hacer un primer viaje dentro de México. Entre los migrantes indocumentados que ya han realizado un primer viaje a Estados Unidos, la violencia mortal también predice negativamente la probabilidad de hacer un segundo viaje indocumentado. Entre los migrantes retornados que realizaron su primer viaje a un destino mexicano, las probabilidades de hacer un primer viaje indocumentado a Estados Unidos también están previstas negativamente por la tasa de homicidio municipal. La violencia en México no es un factor importante para motivar la migración indocumentada a Estados Unidos.

Palabras clave

  • violencia
  • migración indocumentada
  • migración interna
  • Estados Unidos
  • México.

Cómo citar

Massey, D. S., Durand, J., & Pren, K. A. (2020). Lethal Violence and Migration in Mexico: An Analysis of Internal and International Moves. Migraciones Internacionales, 11. https://doi.org/10.33679/rmi.v1i1.2282

Derechos de autor 2020 Migraciones Internacionales

Creative Commons License

Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0.

Citas

  1. Albuja, S. (2014). Criminal violence and displacement in Mexico. Forced Migration Review, 45(1), 28-31.
  2. Alvarado, S. E., & Massey, D. S. (2010). In search of Peace: Structural Adjustment,Violence, and International Migration. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 630(1),137-161.
  3. Arceo-Gómez, E. (2012). Drug-related violence and forced migration from Mexico to the United States. Documento de Trabajo del CIDE No. 526. México, D.F.: Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas.
  4. Basu, S., & Pearlman, S. (2017). Violence and migration: evidence from Mexico’s drug war. Journal of Migration and Development, 7(1), 1-29.
  5. Bohra-Mishra, P., & Massey, D. S. (2011). Individual decisions to migrate during civil conflict. Demography, 48(1), 401-424.
  6. Breslow, J. M. (2015, July 27). The Staggering Death Toll of Mexico’s Drug War. PBS Frontline. Retrieved from http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/the-staggering-death-toll-of-mexicos-drug-war/
  7. Chort, I, & de la Rupelle, M. (2016). Determinants of Mexico-U.S. Outward and Return Migration Flows: A State-Level Panel Data Analysis. Demography, 53(5),1453-1476. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-016-0503-9
  8. Córdova, A., & Hiskey, J. (2019, May). A vicious triangle: Remittances, crime victimization and emigration intentions in northern Central America. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Latin American Studies Association, Boston, MA.
  9. Correa-Cabrera, G. (2013). Security, Migration, and the Economy in the Texas–Tamaulipas Border Region: The “real” Effects of Mexico’s Drug War. Politics & Policy, 41(1), 65-82.
  10. El-Hinnawi, E. (1985). Environmental refugees. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme.
  11. Engel, S., & Ibañez, A. M. (2007). Displacement Due to Violence in Colombia: A Household-Level Analysis. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 55(2), 335-365.
  12. Fiddian-Qasmiyeh, E., Loescher, G., Long, K., & Sigona, N. (Eds.), (2014). The Oxford Handbook of Refugee and Forced Migration Studies. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
  13. Hsiang, S. M., Meng, K. C., & Crane, M. A. (2011). Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate. Nature, 476, 438-441.
  14. Hugo, G. (2008). Migration, development, and environment. IOM Migration Research Series No. 35. Geneva: International Organization for Migration
  15. Ibáñez, A. M., & Vélez, C. E. (2008). Civil Conflict and Forced Migration: The Micro Determinants and Welfare Losses of Displacement in Colombia. World Development, 36(4), 659-676.
  16. Inkpen, C. (2019, May). Vicious triangle: Remittances, crime victimization and emigration intentions in northern Central America. Presented at the conference Responding to the Crisis in the Northern Triangle, Center for International and Global Studies, Duke University, NC. Retrieved from https://sites.duke.edu/northerntrianglepolicy/2019/05/09/victimization-gangs-and-intentions-to-migrate-in-the-northern-triangle/
  17. Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía (INEGI). (2019). “Defunciones por Homicidio”. Retrieved from https://www.inegi.org.mx/sistemas/olap/proyectos/bd/continuas/mortalidad/defuncioneshom.asp?s=est>https://www.inegi.org.mx/sistemas/olap/proyectos/bd/continuas/mortalidad/defuncioneshom.asp?s=est
  18. Lundquist, J. H., & Massey, D. S. (2005). Politics or Economics? International Migration during the Nicaraguan Contra War. Journal of Latin American Studies, 37(1), 29-53.
  19. Massey, D. S., Arango, J. Hugo, G., Kouaouci, A., Pellegrino, A., & Taylor, J. E. (1998). Worlds in Motion: Understanding International Migration at the End of the Millennium. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
  20. Massey, D. S., Durand, J., & Pren, K. A. (2014). Explaining undocumented migration to the U.S. International Migration Review, 48(4), 1028-1061.
  21. Massey, D. S., Durand, J., & Pren, K. A. (2016). Why Border Enforcement Backfired. American Journal of Sociology, 121(5), 1557– 1600.
  22. McCaffrey, B. R., & Scales, R. H. (2011). Texas Border Security: A Strategic Military Assessment. Austin, TX: Texas Department of Agriculture. Retrieved from http://www.texasagriculture.gov/tabid/76/Article/1623/sept-26-2011-texas-border-security-a-strategic-military-assessment.aspx
  23. Mexican Migration Project (MMP). (2020). “MMP Database.” Princeton, NJ: Mexican Migration Project. Retrieved from https://opr.princeton.edu/archive/mmp/
  24. Morrison, A. R. (1993). Violence or Economics: What Drives Internal Migration in Guatemala? Economic Development and Cultural Change, 41(4), 817-831.
  25. Morrison, A. R., & Pérez Lafaurie, M. (1994). Elites, guerrillas and narcotraficantes: Violence and internal migration in Colombia. Canadian Journal of Latin American and Caribbean Studies, 19(37-38), 123-154.
  26. Myers, N., & Kent, J. (1995). Environmental exodus: An emergent crisis in the global arena. Washington, DC: The Climate Institute.
  27. Orozco-Aleman, S., & Gonzalez-Lozano, H. (2018). Drug Violence and Migration Flows: Lessons from the Mexican Drug War. Journal of Human Resources, 53(3), 717-749.
  28. Passel, J., & Cohn, D. (2017, April 25). As Mexican share declined, U.S. unauthorized immigrant population fell in 2015 below recession level. Pew Research Center. Retrieved from https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/25/as-mexican-share-declined-u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-population-fell-in-2015-below-recession-level/
  29. Rios Contreras, V. (2014). The Role of Drug-Related Violence and Extortion in Promoting Mexican Migration: Unexpected Consequences of a Drug War. Latin American Research Review, 49(3),199-217. doi: 10.1353/lar.2014.0038
  30. Shellman, S. M., Stewart, B. M. (2007). Predicting Risk Factors Associated with Forced Migration: An Early Warning Model of Haitian Flight. Civil Wars, 9(2), 174-199.
  31. Silva, A.C, & Massey, D.S. (2014). Violence, Networks, and International Migration from Colombia. International Migration, 53(5), 162-178.
  32. Suhrke, A. (1994). Environmental Degradation and Population Flows. Journal of International Affairs, 47(2), 473-49.

Artículos similares

También puede {advancedSearchLink} para este artículo.