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Artículos

Vol. 11 (2020): enero-diciembre, 2020

Lethal Violence and Migration in Mexico: An Analysis of Internal and International Moves

DOI
https://doi.org/10.33679/rmi.v1i1.2282
Publicado
2020-07-01

Resumen

Conectando tasas de homicidio municipales desde 1990 a 2018 con datos del Proyecto Mexicano de Migración, estimamos una serie de modelos multinomiales de tiempo discreto para evaluar el efecto de la violencia homicida sobre la probabilidad de migrar dentro de México o hacia Estados Unidos sin documentos. Las estimaciones indican que la tasa de homicidio predice negativamente la probabilidad de realizar un primer viaje a Estados Unidos, pero predice positivamente la probabilidad de hacer un primer viaje dentro de México. Entre los migrantes indocumentados que ya han realizado un primer viaje a Estados Unidos, la violencia mortal también predice negativamente la probabilidad de hacer un segundo viaje indocumentado. Entre los migrantes retornados que realizaron su primer viaje a un destino mexicano, las probabilidades de hacer un primer viaje indocumentado a Estados Unidos también están previstas negativamente por la tasa de homicidio municipal. La violencia en México no es un factor importante para motivar la migración indocumentada a Estados Unidos.

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