Immigrants’ Legal Status and Return Intentions: The Case of the Madrid Region

La situación legal de los inmigrantes e intenciones de retorno: El caso de la comunidad de Madrid



El principal objeto de este artículo es analizar las variables determinantes de la intención de retorno de los inmigrantes en la Comunidad Autónoma de Madrid (España), segmentados en función de su estatus legal. La fuente de datos utilizada es la Encuesta Regional de Inmigración (ERI) 2011-2012 de la Comunidad de Madrid. A partir de una muestra de 563 individuos, se establecieron dos hipótesis en relación con las características personales, el éxito en el mercado de trabajo, los factores sociales y los contextuales. Para validar estas hipótesis se diseñó un modelo de regresión logística.

Palabras clave: intención de retorno; migración irregular; regresión logística; comunidad autónoma de Madrid; España


The main aim of this paper is to analyze the underlying variables of return intention of migrants in Spain’s Madrid Region, who are segmented by their legal status. The microdata source is the Regional Immigration Survey 2011–2012. Using a sample of 563 individuals, we formulated two research questions to determine the importance of legal status in return intentions and to find the main explanatory variables of return intention for both legal and illegal immigrants, such as personal factors, job market success, and social and contextual factors. To answer these research questions, we developed a binomial logit model.

Keywords: return intentions; irregular migration; binomial logistic regression; Madrid region; Spain.

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