Borderplex Population Modeling

Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr., Martha Patricia Barraza de Anda

Resumen

Abstract

Numerous studies have examined international migratory trends. Many of them have analyzed migratory fl ows from Mexico to the United States. A substantial body of work has also looked at the various ways in which border-region demographics differ from demographics associated with the nations that lie adjacent to each other. Although the research to date is very useful, one problem that currently hampers analyses of border-region population economics between Mexico and the United States is the general absence of time series data on the breakdowns between international and domestic migration fl ows at the metropolitan level. This article is designed to partially address this gap by developing new migration data estimates for Ciudad Juárez. It also reviews how cross-border metropolitan area migratory fl ows might be jointly modeled, utilizing the 215 equation University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP) borderplex econometric forecasting model as the basic framework for developing such a system.

 

RESUMEN

 

Se han publicado muchos estudios que analizan los fl ujos migratorios internacionales, incluyendo varios que consideran los patrones de migración entre México y Estados Unidos. Muchos estudios también consideran las diversas maneras en que la demografía fronteriza difi ere de los patrones demográfi cos asociados con los países adyacentes a estas regiones. Aunque las investigaciones previas son muy valiosas, un problema que obstaculiza los análisis de la demografía económica fronteriza entre México y Estados Unidos es la ausencia de series de tiempo sobre fl ujos migratorios internos e internacionales en el nivel metropolitano. Este estudio está diseñado para llenar parcialmente esa brecha estadística con el desarrollo de estimados migratorios para Ciudad Juárez.También presenta una estrategia para modelar conjuntamente fl ujos migratorios fronterizos metropolitanos. Ese paso utiliza el sistema simultáneo de 215 ecuaciones econométricas de la región fronteriza del Departamento de Economía y Finanzas de la Universidad de Texas en El Paso (UTEP).

Keywords: Border region; population; applied econometrics; international migration; Ciudad Juárez



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Fecha de recepción: 15 de junio de 2007

Fecha de aceptación: 26 de septiembre de 2007



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